An unprecedented struggle.
An unprecedented escalating conflict between the American President. Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, Chief of Reserve The feds are about interest rate policy.
The conflict is caused by Trump's desire to reduce interest and oppose the first Federal Reserve Chief to reduce now.
The reasons for Trump's desire to lower interest.
Immediate economic stimulation.Link between low interest and economic growth
Blow the dollar.It was considered that less advantage would reduce the currency of the United States to promote exports.
Reduction in debt costsWith a national debt exceeding $40 trillion, interest reduction reduces the cost of servicing this debt.
Stock market supportTrump saw a direct connection between: Pocket boom. The success of his presidency.
Central point of disagreement: timing, not principle
Ironically, Both parties agree that interest should be reduced at some point, but the difference is that:
Reduction speedTramp wants rapid and radical cuts, while the Central Bank prefers a cautious step-by-step approach.
Conditions of commencementWhat economic indicators must be achieved before the cycle of cuts begins?
Possible scenarios
I. Direct confrontation (40% probability)
Trump threatens not to renew the state of Powell (fining 2028)
Trying to pass legislation limiting the independence of the Central Bank
Possible judicial and constitutional battle
Second: compromise (50% possible)
Progressive interest reductions initiated in the first half of 2026
Trump announces his symbolic victory.
The Central Bank preserves the essence of its independence.
Third: protest resignation (10% possible)
Paul resigned to protest political pressure.
A crisis of confidence in world markets
A sharp rise in government bond returns
A test for the American system.
This second round of Trump-Paul conflict is not just a personal conflict, it is:
A real test. To dismiss the authorities. American system
A fateful experience. The independence of central banks globally
Dangerous indicator To transform monetary policy from economic science into a political instrument
The constitutional expert, Professor Alan Dresner, also said: " The end will determine not only the course of the American economy, but the very nature of the American political system for the next decade. "
