In the event of an Israeli attack on Qatar, the Arab and Islamic summit will find itself facing a major challenge related to the unity of position and the ability to act collectively. Possible scenarios for dealing with this summit can vary according to the political positions of countries, their regional and international interests, and the seriousness of the aggression. Here are the most anticipated scenarios:
Scenario 1: a strong unified position
Scenario description:
• An Arab-Islamic consensus strongly condemns the attack.
• Make strong decisions, including:
• Support Qatar politically, economically, and militarily (symbolically or effectively).
• Calling for severing ties with Israel or freezing normalization.
• Request for an emergency meeting of the Security Council.
• Send a joint delegation to the United Nations to present the issue.
Factors to achieve this scenario:
• There is broad Arab/Islamic popular pressure.
• The gravity of the Israeli attack (e.g. targeting civilians or vital facilities).
• Harmony between the major countries in the organization (such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia).
Scenario 2: Formal condemnation and reservations by some States
Scenario description:
• The summit issues a public statement condemning the assault, but lacking practical measures.
• Some countries reserve the language of the statement or reject escalatory steps against Israel.
• Focus on "calling for restraint" and "avoiding escalation."
Factors to achieve this scenario:
• Countries with strong ties to Israel (e.g. UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Turkey)
• Economic and geopolitical considerations (U.S. influence, arms deals, investments).
• The unwillingness of some countries to aggravate the regional situation.
Scenario 3: Summit split and no unified position
Scenario description:
• The summit fails to come up with a unified statement due to divergent positions.
• Separate statements from some countries or blocs (e.g. axis of resistance against axis of normalization).
• Deepening differences within the Arab and Islamic system.
Factors to achieve this scenario:
• Escalating regional tensions (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Gulf states).
• External interventions pressure some countries to de-escalate or de-escalate.
• Weak role of the General Secretariat of the Arab League or the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
Scenario 4: Field or symbolic support from only a few countries
Scenario description:
• Specific countries are acting unilaterally to support Qatar, such as:
• Military or security assistance.
• Troops in the Gulf.
• Extensive media and diplomatic support.
• Without formal collective support from the top.
Factors to achieve this scenario:
• The existence of previous alliances between Qatar and these countries (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan).
• These countries want to project their regional influence.
• Disappointment from the weakness of Arab/Islamic collective action.
Final analysis
• Most likely: Scenario two, given the complexity of Arab relations with Israel and regional priorities.
• The Most Popular Desire: The first scenario, where the Arab and Islamic street is looking for firm action against any Israeli aggression.
• The most dangerous to Arab/Islamic unity: Scenario three, because it perpetuates division and weakens collective deterrence.
If you want a scenario detailed by country or political bloc, I can offer that too.
The most powerful scenarios
The most powerful and influential scenarios in the case of Israel’s aggression against Qatar are those that demonstrate the unity of the situation and the activation of collective deterrence tools, whether political, economic or even security. These scenarios are not only cosmetic, but have practical implications for Israel and the balance of power in the region. Here are the strongest possible scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: A unified Arab-Islamic position with effective punitive measures against Israel
Features of this scenario:
1. Strong and clear condemnation of the attack on Qatar by all member states without reservation.
2. Expulsion of ambassadors of Israel (from countries with which it maintains relations).
3. Freeze or cancel normalization agreements (Abrahamic or others).
4. Imposing collective economic and media sanctions (stopping investments, organized boycott campaigns).
High-level diplomatic coordination in the UN Security Council and General Assembly.
6. Activation of the Joint Arab Defense Agreement (symbolically or physically).
7. Field or intelligence support to Qatar from major countries such as Turkey, Pakistan or Iran.
The power of this scenario:
• It sends a clear message that an attack on any Arab/Islamic country is an attack on everyone.
• It puts political and economic pressure on Israel and embarrasses its Western allies.
• Enhance the prestige of the Arab and Islamic system.
✅ Scenario 2: Establishment of an emergency Islamic/Arab coalition led by Qatar to confront the attack
Features of this scenario:
1. Announcing the formation of a temporary defensive alliance or "joint deterrent force" led by Qatar and with the participation of ready countries (Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iran...).
2. Movement of symbolic forces or deterrent forces in the Gulf or a US base in Qatar within the framework of military coordination.
3. Holding a mini-summit of the vanguard countries to lead the movement within the Islamic world.
4. Using cyber or media warfare tools to indirectly strike deep into Israel.
The power of this scenario:
• Makes a real move beyond data.
• Israel may be deterred from repeating any attack.
• Reorganize regional hubs and strengthen the anti-aggressive front.
✅ Scenario 3: organized international escalation, led by Arab-Islamic leadership, of the diplomatic isolation of Israel
Features of this scenario:
1. Diplomatic coordination between the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Arab League and the Non-Aligned Movement.
2. Opening of an international investigation into the Human Rights Council and the International Criminal Court.
3. The imposition of temporary diplomatic isolation on Israel, such as:
• Suspension of membership in international organizations.
• Preventing them from attending major diplomatic events.
4. Support from major global States such as China and Russia in the Security Council to curb Western support.
The power of this scenario:
• Israel embarrasses the international community.
• It opens up for United Nations decisions against her.
• Pays States that were reluctant to reconsider their relations with them.
Brief comparison:
Scenario level of force probability of implementation affecting Israel
Common position and punitive measures 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Large average
Emergency alliance led by Qatar 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Low to large average if
An organized international escalation 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Average to medium to large
💡 Important observations:
• The strongest scenarios require coordination among the pivotal States (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey).
• Political will is the decisive factor: many States have tools, but do not have sufficient will or independence.
• A direct threat to other Gulf interests may lead to a more united and solid position.
Dr. Fuzzy McKor.
Professor at Cairo University
